Saturday, March 29, 2014

Midwest Winter Storm May End March With A Roar

By: By Jon Erdman
Published: March 29,2014
 
 
 
  • Snowstorm threat: Northern Plains to Northern Great Lakes

  • Sunday night - Tuesday

  • Blizzard conditions possible 

Background

Winter Storm/Blizzard Alerts

Winter Storm/Blizzard Alerts
Background

Monday's Forecast

Monday's Forecast
Background

Tuesday's Forecast

Tuesday's Forecast
We're about to close the book on March and welcome the month of April. One month closer to summer. However, in the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, snowstorms are very much a part of early spring.
Yes, a winter storm is on the table early in the upcoming week. In fact, blizzard watches have been issued for parts of Northern Plains in advance of this next storm. Let's break down what we know and what is still uncertain, to help you plan for this potential storm.

More confident: Timing

  • Sunday: Snow mainly over the Rockies, including parts of Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Idaho and Montana.
  • Sunday night: Snow spreads out of the northern High Plains into the Northern Plains, with increasing east to northeast winds.
  • Monday: Snow, likely heavy, will continue in parts of the Dakotas and spread into parts of northern Minnesota, with blizzard conditions possible. Rain may change to snow Monday night farther south in the Upper Mississippi Valley, including the Twin Cities.
  • Tuesday: Lingering snow and some wind, diminishing late in the day in the northern Great Lakes.

More confident: Snow, wind impacts

  • Snowfall potential: 6"+ snow possible from the northern High Plains to northern Minnesota. Parts of northern Minnesota and the Dakotas may see a foot or more snow.
  • Blizzard potential: The combination of high pressure over the Canadian Prairies and moderately strong low pressure tracking from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes will likely produce blizzard or near-blizzard conditions in parts of the Dakotas and parts of western and northern Minnesota Monday and Monday night, possibly into early Tuesday.
  • Travel impact: Road closures are possible along stretches of I-29, I-94 and I-90 in the Dakotas and western Minnesota particularly Monday and Monday night. Secondary roads would quickly become impassable due to blowing and drifting snow.
  • Cities: Aberdeen, S.D. | Duluth, Minn. | Fargo, N.D. | Rapid City, S.D.

Still uncertain: Track of the low, ice threats

  • Our numerical forecast guidance is not in sync on the exact path of the surface low, which is typical this far out from a winter storm.
  • This would affect the location of the heavy snow swath and would determine whether more northern locations see more rain initially as the storm pulls into the Upper Midwest Monday.
  • It's also uncertain if enough cold air near the surface may hang in to allow a band of freezing rain to develop from parts of Minnesota to the U.P. of Michigan.
  • Potential cities impacted: Duluth | Mpls./St. Paul | Fargo, N.D. | Rapid City, S.D.
(MORE: 10 Cities Winter Spared | 10 Worst Winter Cities)
Check back with weather.com and The Weather Channel for the latest on this upcoming storm.

MORE: Winter Storm Seneca (Late. Feb. Upper Midwest Blizzard)

A runner runs along the lake shore in Chicago, Friday, Feb. 21, 2014. Strong winds and icy roads made for a difficult commute this morning as a powerful storm lingered for a second day. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

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