Thursday, January 29, 2015

Winter Storm More Likely to Hit Ohio Valley This Weekend; Mid-Atlantic Next Up

By , Expert Senior Meteorologist
January 29,2015; 11:02PM,EST
 
 
The punches just keep coming from Old Man Winter as another storm with snow may sweep from the Midwest this weekend into the mid-Atlantic and perhaps New England by Groundhog Day.
In the wake of the Blizzard of 2015 that hit Long Island and New England and a late-week Alberta Clipper storm for the Midwest and Northeast, two new systems will come together in such a way as to develop another storm this weekend.
The merging storms and cold air will result in a swath of slippery travel and disruptions to daily activities this weekend into early next week.
One system originating from the northern Pacific Ocean and another from off the coast of Baja California, Mexico, may join up over the central Plains early in the weekend. Areas of rain and spotty thunderstorms will gather over Texas and the southern Plains on Saturday, while a swath of snow expands over the northern Plains with a wintry mix in between.

Because the storm will have a strong southern component, it has the potential to tap into plenty of moisture from Pacific Ocean and later the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation amounts could be substantial with the storm as it moves along from the Central to Eastern states.
As the storm progresses eastward, people in St. Louis may be slipping and sliding on Sunday with the potential for a few inches of snow. Chicago could end up accumulating snow, especially across the southern suburbs.
Enough snow and a wintry mix can occur around Kansas City, Missouri, to make for slippery travel on Saturday.

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The more west-to-east path of the storm is appearing to be the more likely of the two scenarios with a balance of fresh cold air coming in with a wedge of warmth to the south.
According to AccuWeather.com Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, there is still some uncertainty this far out concerning the storm's intensity and track as it moves along farther east.
"If the two systems remain separate they will tend to compete with each other and precipitation amounts from the Midwest to the East will be light and sporadic. However, if the two completely join forces, there is the potential for heavy precipitation, some being snow, some being rain, some being a combination thereof," Abrams said.
The storm will have warm air moving along its southern side. Temperatures soared to record high levels on parts of the Plains earlier this week. This remnants of this warmth could be tugged along farther to the east.
The warmth may still be a player in the primary form of precipitation from the central Plains on Saturday to the lower mid-Atlantic coast by Groundhog Day, which is Monday, Feb. 2.
Enough cold air will move in to favor snow over rain from northern part of the Ohio Valley to the upper mid-Atlantic coast.
All or mostly snow is favored at this time just north of the storm track from moving eastward from St. Louis to Indianapolis; Columbus, Ohio; Pittsburgh; Washington, D.C.; Philadelphia and New York City. In at least part of this swath, enough snow to shovel and plow is likely.
From Sunday into Monday, areas along the immediate path of the storm are most likely to catch a bit of the warm air. Cities that could receive a combination of snow, rain and perhaps some ice include Cape Girardeau, Missouri; Evansville, Indiana; Louisville, Kentucky; Charleston, West Virginia; Cincinnati and Richmond, Virginia.
In the wake of the storm, there is even the possibility that snow could mix in as far south as Nashville with a freezeup possible in parts of northern North Carolina.
A shift in the track to the south or north, due to cold air holding its ground or retreating, will determine what form of precipitation the bulk of the storm will bring.
However, even if the storm mixes with or changes to rain from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic, enough wintry precipitation is still likely occur to make for a period of slippery travel and raise the possibility of flight delays and cancellations.
The strength of the storm as it moves along will determine the amount of not only precipitation, but also wind, blowing and drifting snow and any coastal flooding.
If the storm strengthens significantly along the Atlantic coast on Monday, it could turn northward enough to throw snow into part of New England.
In the South, a period of rain and perhaps thunderstorms will sweep from west to east Sunday into Monday.
Another burst of cold air will sweep into the Midwest and Northeast following the storm next week.
Updates on this storm will continue on AccuWeather.com, as the track of this potentially disruptive system could shift again.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Jordan Root contributed content to this story.




 
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