Saturday, November 28, 2015

Winter Storm Cara Continues to Cause Ice Storm Conditions (FORECAST)

Linda Lam
Published: November 28,2015

Winter Storm Cara continues to produce ice accumulations from freezing rain over a swath of the southern and central Plains. An ice storm warning remains in effect for parts of central Oklahoma, an area that has taken the worst blow from Cara.
(MORE: Latest Impacts from Cara | The Science of Naming Winter Storms)
A textbook combination of Arctic air plunging south and tropical moisture surging north has been responsible for the freezing rain across a swath of the southern and central Plains since Thursday. Although the area of freezing rain will start to shrink a bit, some areas have already seen enough ice to cause major power outages and extremely slick pavement for drivers and pedestrians.

Winter Weather Alerts
Besides the mess of sleet and freezing rain, there is also heavy rain and dangerous flooding on the warm side of this storm system.
Numerous watches, warnings and advisories for winter weather are posted across a swath of the Plains, including ice storm warnings in parts of Texas and Oklahoma.
(INTERACTIVE: Winter Alerts | Radar)
The coldest air mass of the season so far in the West and the Plains has helped to maintain the prolonged freezing rain event, providing a fresh supply of below-freezing air to slide along the ground underneath a layer of warm, moist air. The setup is allowing precipitation to melt as it falls (and in some cases, to form as liquid droplets in the first place) before freezing on contact at ground level.
(MORE: Thanksgiving Travel Forecast)

Plains Ice Storm


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Observations

Forecast Highs and Precipitation

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The National Weather Service has extended the ice storm warning until noon CST Sunday for Oklahoma, Canadian and Caddo counties in Oklahoma, including the city of Oklahoma City. These areas have seen some of the heaviest ice accumulation from Winter Storm Cara, and it appears that some light additional freezing rain will continue to fall off and on through Sunday morning.
(MORE: Ice Accumulations and Impacts)
Freezing rain advisories and winter weather advisories are posted across a much broader swath of the region, including much of Kansas and much of the western half of Oklahoma. For most of this region, light freezing rain or freezing drizzle will continue to create hazardous driving and walking conditions into early Sunday. Even small accumulations of ice can cause extremely slick conditions.
Freezing fog advisories are posted over the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles as well; the fog could leave a thin film of black ice on road surfaces, again causing similar dangers for those traveling.
(FORECAST: Amarillo | Oklahoma City | Wichita
The majority of the remaining snow from Winter Storm Cara has dissipated, although a new area of snow is forecast to develop later Sunday across the central to northern Plains. This is associated with a system that is separate from Winter Storm Cara.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)If that weren't enough, ahead of the cold front widespread heavy rainfall is bringing flooding to parts of Texas, eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri.
The aforementioned stuck upper-atmospheric low-pressure system over the Great Basin will finally get moving over the Rockies and into the Plains from late Sunday into Tuesday. This could bring another winter storm to parts of the central and northern Plains and western Great Lakes Sunday night through Tuesday.
(MORE: Next Winter Storm?)

Arctic Blast


Morning Forecast Lows
The upper-level trough, or southward dip in the jet stream, has dug in across the West. Combined with a strong area of high pressure from Canada, the result is the first serious blast of arctic air this season in the West and Plains.
This has led to the coldest temperatures so far this season for many areas. A couple of examples include Helena, Montana, where the lowest temperature recorded so far this season had been 14 degrees on Nov. 21; Helena fell to 6 degrees below zero both Thursday and Friday. Reno, Nevada had seen the mercury drop as low as 21 degrees on Nov. 11; Reno reached 20 on Friday and dipped to 16 on Saturday morning.
According to NOAA, the nation's low Friday was 24 below zero at Antero Reservoir in central Colorado. This is the lowest temperature observed in the contiguous United States so far this season, and the lowest since a reading of 29 below zero was reported at Saranac Lake, New York, on March 6.
In Big Piney, Wyoming, the mercury bottomed out at a record low of 22 below zero Friday.
Even the West Coast has felt the chill. Oakland, California tied a record low Thursday morning when they fell to 35 degrees. Record lows were also tied or set Thanksgiving Day in Montague, California (13 degrees), and Quillayute, Washington (23 degrees). King City, about 90 miles southeast of San Jose, also tied a record low Friday morning (25 degrees).
(FORECAST: Great Falls, Montana | Casper, Wyoming | Denver)
In general, the air mass will moderate over the next few days and temperatures will slowly recover. Still, lows Sunday morning will be 10 to 15 degrees below average in parts of the interior Northwest.
Highs Sunday will be 10 to 20 degrees below average in an arc from Nevada to Wyoming to Texas, but this will mostly be due to cloud cover, snow cover or both blocking the sun from warming the ground.

Ice Reports

Freezing rain first developed in the early morning hours of Thanksgiving in parts of northeast Colorado, eastern Wyoming, Nebraska and southern Minnesota and has spread southward along with the advance of cold air.
Friday and Saturday, freezing rain zeroed in on a part of the southern Plains from eastern New Mexico to West Texas, central and western Oklahoma, as well as further northeast across central and eastern Kansas to western Missouri.
The freezing rain led to damaging accumulations of glaze ice late Friday through much of Saturday over portions of the Texas Panhandle and the western half of Oklahoma.
The most significant ice accumulations appeared to be across the western side the Oklahoma City metro area, westward to roughly the U.S. Highway 183 corridor. In the El Reno and Eakly areas in Oklahoma, numerous photos shared via social media indicated that 1 to 1 1/2 inches of ice had accumulated on trees and other surfaces.
El Reno sustained significant tree and power line damage due to the weight of substantial ice accretion. The National Weather Service relayed reports of downed trees due to the weight of the ice in Yukon, a suburb just west of Oklahoma City.
Emergency management in Enid, Oklahoma, reported 3/4 to 1 inch of ice accretion on trees and power lines. Half an inch of ice glaze built up in Pampa and Claude, both in the Texas Panhandle, according to the National Weather Service in Amarillo.
Ice accumulating near Seiling

Automated ice accumulation sensors recorded 0.26 inch of ice accumulation in Winfield, Kansas, and 0.18 inch in Hutchinson and Wichita, Kansas, Friday into Saturday morning.
Power was knocked out in all of Rockwell City, Iowa (population: 1,709) early Friday morning thanks to strong winds downing power lines loaded with about 3/8 inch of accumulated ice. Power lines were also reportedly downed near Lariat, Texas, Thanksgiving night.
Other significant ice accumulation reports Friday included 3/8 inch on sidewalks in Blaine, Kansas, and 0.3 inch in both Beattie, Kansas and Wellington, Texas. Up to 1/4 inch of ice accumulation was reported in Omaha, Nebraska.

Snow Reports

Snow started to pile up on Tuesday across portions of the interior Northwest, Sierra Nevada and far northern Rockies. Some freezing rain was also reported in the Columbia Basin. Snow was reported in parts of Montana, Wyoming and Idaho on Wednesday.
Bend, Oregon, reported 10 to 16 inches of new snow Tuesday night, with snowfall rates of 4 inches in 3 hours. This is quite impressive for this relatively dry plateau to the east of the Oregon Cascades, which only averages about 24 inches of snow each season. This heavy snow brought traffic to a standstill on U.S. 97 Tuesday night.
Farther south, up to 23 inches of snow fell around Crater Lake, which The Weather Channel recently named the snowiest place in Oregon.
Up to a foot of snow in the Sierra Nevada snarled traffic on Interstate 80 over Donner Summit in California Tuesday, as well. Up to 22 inches of snow was reported at Kirkwood Mountain Resort south of Lake Tahoe on the California side of the state line. On the Nevada side, Mount Rose Ski Area tallied 10 inches of snow, the top reported total in Nevada as of Wednesday afternoon.
Here are the top snowfall totals of at least 6 inches by state, so far:
  • Nevada: 25 inches estimated on Tent Mountain, about 30 miles east of Elko
  • Oregon: 23 inches near Crater Lake
  • California: 22 inches at Kirkwood Mountain Resort
  • Colorado: 19 inches at Wolf Creek Pass (72-hour total through 7 a.m. Saturday)
  • Idaho: 14 inches in Buhl, about 100 miles southeast of Boise
  • Wyoming: 14 inches at Sinks Canyon, near Lander in central Wyoming
  • Montana: 8.5 inches near Clancy, which is just south of Helena
  • New Mexico: 8 inches at Taos Ski Area
Lighter snow fell on Thanksgiving Day in parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. It was the first accumulating snow of the season in the Twin Cities, the seventh latest such occurrence on record, there.
By Friday night, what little remained of Cara's snowfall was mainly confined to the Colorado Rockies and High Plains of western Kansas, as most of the precipitation over the Plains was either sleet or freezing rain.
(MORE: State-by-State Impacts)
Check back for updates and the latest information on Winter Storm Cara. The name Cara (CAH-ruh) is taken from the Latin word meaning "beloved."
Meteorologists Linda Lam, Jon Erdman, Quincy Vagell and Nick Wiltgen contributed to this report.
MORE: Winter Storm Bella (PHOTOS)

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