Heavy Snow, Strong Winds Target Rockies, Plains, Upper Midwest (FORECAST)

Quincy Vagell
Published: January 27,2016



 
Five years after the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011 hammered much of the Plains and Midwest, another winter storm may produce blizzard conditions across the central United States to start February 2016. This time around, the areas with the greatest potential for seeing the most snow will likely be north and west of the heaviest axis of snow in the 2011 snowstorm.
(MORE: Memories from Past Groundhog Days)
A southward plunge in the jet stream this weekend is expected to trigger the development of low pressure east of the Rockies by early next week. With the low-pressure system forecast to rapidly intensify, wrapping moisture into cold air to its north, a swath of heavy snow and strong winds is forecast to develop north and northwest of the track of the surface low.

Possible Groundhog Day Setup

At this point, parts of the central and southern Rockies, central to northern Plains, Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes have the greatest probability to see significant snow from this system.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
Below we discuss the potential setup in more detail.

System Likely to Develop in the West This Weekend

The seemingly endless parade of storm systems to impact the West Coast is forecast to continue into the weekend.
Forecasts from the computer models differ on the exact details, but more locally heavy rain is expected to first spread into the Pacific Northwest and far northern California Friday, then slowly slide down the coast into Sunday. Across the mountains, especially the Sierra, snow is likely pile up, tacking on to their already above-average snowpack, by late-January standards.

Sunday's Forecast

Snow will then overspread parts of Nevada, Utah and Colorado. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow across much of this area, but rain or a mixture of rain and snow is anticipated over the lowest elevations.
Forecast: Grand Junction, Colorado | Reno, Nevada | Salt Lake City
As the jet stream continues to digs south across the West, snow levels will fall as cold air drives south into portions of Arizona and New Mexico. This means snow will be possible from northern Arizona, eastward into the central and southern Rockies and adjacent Front Range as early as Sunday night.

Storm Intensifies over Plains Early Next Week

Monday that low-pressure system will gather steam in the southern or central Plains. This will spread snow from the Four Corners region of the Southwest into the High Plains.

Monday's Forecast

An area of heavy snow is likely to form just to the north of the center of low pressure, potentially including parts of Colorado, southern Wyoming, western Nebraska, western Kansas and New Mexico.
Forecast: Casper, Wyoming | Denver | Santa Fe, New Mexico
The low-pressure system is forecast to move northeastward and intensify, reaching the mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday. Again, the track of the storm is crucial, as heavy snow should persist to the north and northwest of the low track. Indications are that the heaviest snow will hammer parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest Tuesday.

Tuesday's Forecast

Into Tuesday night and Wednesday, snow is expected to spread into the northern Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Due to the intensifying low, another story will be the potential for strong winds. Sustained winds may reach 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph, with the highest confidence of this happening over parts of Nebraska and Iowa.
The combination of snow and wind will result in near-blizzard conditions, if not blizzard conditions, over parts of the Plains and Upper Midwest. With the storm still four to five days away, it will be a few more days before there is more confidence with the specifics of this threat.
Forecast: Des Moines | Green Bay | Minneapolis
As warm, moist air is drawn northward, thunderstorms are likely to develop ahead of the cold front from the southern Plains Monday into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley Tuesday, on the warm side of the storm. Some of these storms are likely to be severe, particularly on Tuesday.
Forecast: Jackson, Mississippi | Memphis, Tennessee | St. Louis
Indications are that the storm moves swiftly to the northeast through midweek with precipitation tapering off to snow showers across parts of the Great Lakes next Wednesday night into Thursday.

Next Wednesday's Forecast

With the low projected to pass through the eastern Great Lakes and into Canada, mainly rain is in the forecast for the East Coast late Tuesday into next Wednesday. It is possible that some sufficiently cold air may be trapped in some valley locations of the interior Northeast to allow a bit of snow, sleet and freezing rain as precipitation first develops, but the storm track does not favor widespread accumulating snow or ice across the region.
Forecast: Boston | New York | Washington, D.C.

Comparing to the Groundhog Blizzard of 2011

An impressive winter storm dropped more than a foot of snow from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri, Illinois and Michigan. Blizzard warnings were issued across eight states, as winds gusted to 50 to 60 mph with the snow.

A map showing snowfall totals from the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011.
(NOAA)

In Chicago, this event was the third heaviest snowstorm on record with 21.2 inches of snow from Jan. 31 to Feb. 2, 2011. The Windy City also set a 24 hour snowfall record with an even 20 inches during the height of the storm.
The main difference between this year's expected winter storm and the Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011 is the storm track.
In 2011, low pressure began to develop over coastal Texas and ejected north-northeast into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This track was far enough south and east to allow cold air to reach Oklahoma City, Kansas City and Chicago, where temperatures stayed below freezing throughout the entire event.
Despite the upcoming storm system forecast to occur on the same calendar days as the 2011 Groundhog Day winter storm, there will likely be some differences in snowfall this time around.
Early next week, the low pressure is forecast to track farther north and west than the 2011 event. The corridor from Oklahoma City to Chicago should see mainly rain, as they end up near or south of the storm's track. However, this setup could result in heavy accumulating snow for areas such as Denver, Omaha and Minneapolis.
As always, check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecasts as new information comes in.
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