Extended Forecast for Late Summer and Early Fall: Warmth in the South and East; High Plains to Cool Off

Tom Moore
Published: July 29,2016
A significant portion of the country will experience above-average temperatures from late summer through early fall, according to an updated outlook by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
However, cooler-than-average temperatures will prevail across the Northern U.S., according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.
(MORE: Dangerously Hot Temperatures Expected This Week)

August Outlook

In August, the core of the heat will span from the South to the Northeast across the eastern third of the nation.
Dr. Crawford elaborated on the general outlook for August: "As we continue to evolve towards La Niña, conditions will become more favorable for hotter temperatures to push into the Eastern U.S. in August."
The biggest forecast update for August is that a significant portion of the Northern U.S. is now expected to see near to slightly below-average temperatures, while the Southern U.S. will trend warmer.
The forecast for the eastern third of the nation remains largely unchanged with above average temperatures expected.

Temperature Forecast for August.
(WSI)

The August temperature outlook for the Deep South and Gulf Coast has been modified to reflect above-average temperatures. So far, it has been a hot summer across the region, and it appears that trend will continue.
The heat is due to a "blocking" pattern in the upper atmosphere that allows high-pressure ridges to hold across the South.
Crawford indicated that blocking patterns during the summer months have been more common in recent years, and it may be related to a sharp decline in Arctic sea ice.
(MORE: Urban Heat Islands: Why Cities are Warmer than Rural Areas)

The Three-Month Forecast

Dr. Crawford also indicated that the general August pattern is likely to continue through September and October.
September's forecast shows a rather expansive swath of warmer-than-average temperatures from California, through Texas, to the Southeast coast. Above-average temperatures will extend northward from the Southeast to the Great Lakes and up the entire Eastern Seaboard.

Temperature Forecast August-October.
(WSI)

The only locations in the Lower 48 that may see near or slightly cooler-than-average conditions in September will be the northern Rockies to the northern Plains.
Conditions in October are expected to be quite similar to September, but near-average temperatures are expected across much of the Southwest and in the northern Plains. Cooler than average temperatures will be possible on the west coast as we get into October.
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