Thunderstorms may turn severe in parts of the South Monday into Tuesday from the same weather system that will bring drought-helping rainfall to the region.
(MORE: Southern Drought Relief Ahead)
Gulf of Mexico moisture, in combination with a strong cold front and a vigorous jet stream, will be the ingredients for this potential round of severe storms. Damaging wind gusts will be the main concern, but a few tornadoes are also possible.
Severe storms may develop ahead of a cold front Monday in the South.Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats early this week.
Severe Weather Forecast
Monday- Forecast: Severe storms may fire up in eastern Texas, Louisiana and southern Arkansas during the day, eventually spreading as far east as Mississippi in the evening.
- Threats: Damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes possible.
- Cities: Houston | Jackson, Mississippi (evening) | New Orleans (evening) | Shreveport, Louisiana
Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Monday Night's Thunderstorm Forecast
- Forecast: A new wave of low pressure rippling along the cold front in the South may spark a few more severe storms. The potential for severe storms during this period of time is uncertain, but the greatest chance may be along the Gulf Coast from far southeast Texas to southern Alabama.
- Threats: Large hail and damaging wind gusts possible.
Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Slow 'Second' Season of Severe Weather, So Far
The second half of October and, especially, November can often be a "second" season for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms, particularly in parts of the South. That hasn't been the case so far this year, however.So far, 2016 has featured a below-average number of tornadoes. Through mid-November, the tornado count for the year-to-date was 24 percent below average across the United States.
For more details on the slow tornado pace in 2016, see the link below.
(MORE: Lack of Tornadoes Continues in "Second" Tornado Season)
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