Thirsty Southern Drought Areas Could Finally See Widespread Soaking Rainfall

Chris Dolce
Published: November 23,2016
Parts of the southeastern United States remain in the throes of a major drought with some locations seeing little, if any, rainfall for many weeks. But there are signs that some good news may finally be on the way next week in the form of a much-needed soaking.
The potential for significant rainfall will be thanks to a more favorable jet stream pattern taking shape during the first half of next week.
(MORE: Extended Forecast Maps)

A sharp southward dip in the jet stream will pull a surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Deep South early next week. This could result in some much needed rainfall.

Specifically, a pronounced southward dip in the jet stream will move across the western states and into the nation's midsection before punching east Sunday through next Wednesday. Forecast guidance is suggesting that the strong jet stream in combination with its associated surface frontal system will pull a significant surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture northward into the Deep South.
Uncertainty remains with how much rain will fall any one location, but given the weather pattern setup, it could be one of the most widespread soakings portions of the South have seen in a long time.
Locations in various degrees of drought from eastern Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas to Tennessee, Mississippi, Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia and the western Carolinas all have the potential to see up to an inch of rainfall, possibly more in some locales, early next week.
(FORECAST: Atlanta | Birmingham, Alabama | Jackson, Mississippi | Nashville, Tennessee)
Exactly how much rain falls will depend on how this weather system evolves and how quickly it moves. Those are details that cannot be determined this many days in advance.

Latest Drought Status, Dry Streaks and Impacts

Exceptional drought, the worst category on the U.S. Drought Monitor, is currently affecting parts of six states in the South. A much larger area of the South is experiencing various other levels of drought severity, from eastern Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the western Carolinas.
Alabama and Georgia lead the way with 35 percent and 34 percent of those states in exceptional drought, respectively. The percentage of Alabama in exceptional drought is the highest its been since early 2008.
(PHOTOS: Southeast Drought)

Southeast drought status as of Nov. 22, 2016. Parts of six states were in exceptional drought, which is the worst category possible.

Oneonta, Alabama, had not seen measurable rain (0.01 inches or greater) in 94 days through Nov. 22, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report.
Many other cities in Georgia and Alabama also have extensive record-long streaks with no measurable rain.

Record Streaks Without Measurable Rain
Through November 22, 2016 (Data: ACIS)

Cartersville, Georgia	65 days	Previous record: 44 days ending October 20, 1938
Dothan, Alabama	64 days	Previous record: 49 days ending November 2, 1961
Albany, Georgia	57 days	Previous record: 27 days ending May 25, 2011
Anniston, Alabama	57 days	Previous record: 38 days ending July 1, 1988
Rome, Georgia	57 days	Previous record: 40 days ending October 10, 1897

Atlanta had seen 37 straight days without measurable rain through Nov. 22. This is closing in on the Georgia capital's record of 39 days with no measurable rain.
The tinder dry conditions from the dearth of rainfall has fueled hundreds of wildfires in the Southeast. At least 34 large fires were ongoing as of Nov. 22 in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Here are some other impacts from southern drought compiled in the U.S. Drought Monitor report as of Nov. 22:

• Streams in portions of the South are at record low or near-record low levels.
• Ponds have dried up in parts of Alabama and Mississippi.
• Some cattle producers are having to use their winter hay supply. The USDA says that in Mississippi the winter hay supply has already been used up in some locations.
• 100 percent of the topsoil moisture and 98 percent of subsoil moisture in Alabama was rated dry or very dry.

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