Late-Week Bombogenesis May Bring Heavy Snow, Wind to Parts of New England and More Heavy Lake-Effect Snow

Brian Donegan
Published: December 27,2016
A snowstorm is increasingly likely in parts of New England and upstate New York and the Great Lakes could see heavy lake-effect snow this week as 2016 comes to an end.
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A southward plunge of the jet stream, or upper-level trough, will intensify over the eastern half of the country late this week. An area of low pressure will develop at the surface near the Northeast coast, and will be pushed northward into far eastern Canada.
This low may undergo "bombogenesis", a rapid strengthening within a period of only 24 hours, Thursday night into Friday.

There is uncertainty in computer model guidance regarding the exact track and intensity of the low-pressure system, which will dictate how much snow falls, how close to the coast the rain/snow line sets up and how far inland the snow reaches.
A track farther offshore would bring heavier snow closer to the coast, while a track near the coast would bring mainly rain to coastal areas with heavy snow remaining inland. An inland track would spread the snow farther west toward the eastern Great Lakes.
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For now, here's our current forecast timeline along with an outlook on who may see the heaviest snow.

Thursday

• Snow will develop from southwest to northeast, from the Appalachians of West Virginia and Pennsylvania to northwest New Jersey, New York state and New England.
• Mainly rain is expected along the Interstate 95 corridor from Boston to Washington D.C. and points south and east of there, due to influences from the milder ocean air. 

(FORECAST: Pittsburgh | Albany, New York | Portland, Maine)

Thursday's Forecast

Thursday Night - Friday

• This is the time period where low pressure near or over the New England intensifies (bombogenesis).
• Snow, heavy at times, is possible over all of northern New England and possibly over parts of Upstate New York and parts of southern New England west of Boston.
• Lake-effect snow will develop in most of the Great Lakes snowbelts as even colder air filters in on the backside of this storm system.
• Both the New England snow and lake-effect snow will taper off later Friday as the low pulls northward into Canada.

(FORECAST: Erie, Pennsylvania | Burlington, Vermont | Bangor, Maine)

Friday's Forecast

Snow, Wind Outlook

• The greatest chance for snow totals of 6 inches or more through Friday is in the mountains of eastern West Virginia, as well as over a large swath of Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
• The lake-effect snowbelts in Michigan, northwest Pennsylvania, southwest and upstate New York could also see 6 inches or more of snow by Friday night.
• Lighter accumulations are expected the closer you get to the Interstate 95 corridor.
• The strongest winds are expected to be along coastal New England and Long Island Thursday night into Friday, with gusts over 50 mph possible. This could lead to some tree damage and power outages.

Be sure to check back with weather.com for updates over the next few days as we fine tune the details of this forecast.

Snowfall Outlook

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