Two Tropical Cyclones May Make Christmas Landfalls: Nock-Ten in the Philippines and Yvette in Australia

Linda Lam
Published: December 22,2016
Two tropical cyclones may make landfall on Christmas Day: one in the Philippines, the other in Australia.
Nock-ten is heading toward the Philippines this weekend, while Yvette is tracking toward northwest Australia.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)
Tropical storms and hurricanes are almost never a Christmas concern in the Atlantic Basin but can happen in the northwest Pacific and Southern Hemisphere.

Nock-ten (Philippines)

Tropical Storm Nock-ten is spinning east of the Philippines and is expected to strengthen into a typhoon Friday as it moves to the west-northwest. It is expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility by Friday and will then be given the local name of Nina.

Current Satellite

Nock-ten is located in a favorable environment for strengthening as vertical wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are very warm. There is also the potential for rapid intensification before it reaches the eastern Philippines due to high ocean heat content.

Projected Path and Intensity

It is expected to make landfall early Christmas Day as the equivalent of a Category 2 or possibly Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in the Bikol region of the Philippines.
It will then continue tracking across the Philippines, possibly impacting the heavily populated capital of Manila the day after Christmas.
Nock-ten is not expected to re-curve northwestward due to the strong northeast monsoon flow over the South China Sea. However, it will weaken as it moves through the Philippines due to cooler and drier air, as well as interaction with land.
(FORECAST: Naga | Capalonga | Manila)
While the intensity of Nock-ten at landfall remains uncertain, the heavy rain threat is in play, including in metro Manila.

Rainfall Forecast

Many areas of the northern Philippines are expected to see more than 3 inches of rainfall, with more than 10 inches locally.
The last tropical cyclone to impact the Philippines was Tropical Storm Tokage, locally known as Marce, in late November.
The last typhoon to make landfall in the Philippines was Super Typhoon Haima, known locally as Lawin. Haima made landfall in the northern Philippines on Oct. 19 with winds of 140 mph. Damage was extensive from Haima and at least 13 people died.
(MORE: Super Typhoon Haima Damaged or Destroyed Nearly Every Home in One Philippine City)
Nock-ten is expected to track farther south than Haima, but given the densely populated area that could be affected by this storm, significant impacts are possible.

Yvette (Western Australia)

Tropical Cyclone Yvette is northwest of western Australia and has recently tracked very slowly to the east. Yvette is expected to begin to move southeastward and accelerate on Friday.
(MORE: Hurricanes, Typhoons and Cyclones: Regional Names Explained)

Current Satellite

Yvette is currently the equivalent of a tropical storm, or Category 1 Tropical Cyclone by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and little intensification is anticipated due to strong vertical wind shear. It is possible that this system will weaken before it makes landfall.
Landfall in western Australia is expected on Christmas either in the eastern Pilbara region or the western Kimberley coast.

Projected Path and Intensity

Heavy rainfall is likely and will be enhanced by the strong northwesterly monsoon flow that is expected to persist.
(FORECAST: Broome | Port Hedland | Derby)
The good news is that this area of Australia is sparsely populated.
Yvette is also the first tropical cyclone of the 2016-17 Australian region cyclone season, which goes from Nov. 1 to April 30.
Given that this is the time of year when tropical cyclones are more common, it is not the first time that a tropical system has impacted Australia on Christmas.
In 1974, Tropical Cyclone Tracy made landfall in the Northern Territory on Christmas Day as the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane. Winds gusted up to 135 mph before the measuring instrument failed.
(MORE: Tropical Cyclone Tracy)
Tracy caused extensive damage in Darwin and killed more than 50 people. Tracy has been called the most significant tropical cyclone in Australia's history.