Wintry Mess Possible for Midwest, Northeast After New Year's Holiday

Brian Donegan
Published: December 31,2016
A wintry mess of snow, sleet and freezing rain is lining up for parts of the Plains, Midwest and Northeast during the first few days of 2017.
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Late this weekend, an upper-level trough, or dip in the jet stream, will begin to slide southward over the West bringing cold temperatures and snowfall. This trough will then slide south and east early in the week.
The general setup involves a flow of moist, above-freezing air initially riding over below-freezing air near the surface in the Northeast and Midwest.

Weather Setup Sunday Night

Secondly, while still uncertain this far out in time, an area of low pressure may intensify and track from the High Plains east of the Rockies toward the Great Lakes states, pumping more warm air ahead of it, but generating potentially significant snow and wind to its west and northwest.
Let's break down this complex forecast day by day. Since this is still far out in time, changes to this forecast may be necessary in the coming days.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Sunday-Sunday Night

• Snow develops across the Pacific Northwest, including Seattle and Portland.
• Snow will also spread across the interior West and into the Rockies.
• Sunday night, precipitation will spread farther east into parts of the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast ahead of this system.
• Colder air trapped near the surface may cause the precipitation to fall in the form of freezing rain, sleet or even snow in spots generally along and north of Interstate 80, from northern New Jersey into Nebraska.
• This may lead to slick roadways if untreated, Sunday night.

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Sunday Night's Forecast

Monday-Monday Night

• An area of low pressure is expected to organize in the Plains, with precipitation stretching from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, northern Great Lakes and New York state and northern Pennsylvania.
• Mainly snow is expected in the northern Plains, while snow, sleet or freezing rain is expected from eastern Nebraska to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
• Sleet or freezing rain is expected from northern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey into southern New York and, by Monday night, parts of New England.
• Mainly rain is expected elsewhere in the mid-Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, southern Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic states.
• Slippery travel is again possible on any untreated surfaces.

(MORE: Five Reasons Why Freezing Rain Really Is the Worst)

Monday's Forecast

Tuesday-Tuesday Night

• Sleet and freezing rain continue in portions of northern New England.
• Snow will also linger over parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes.
• This could be accompanied by strong winds, leading to reduced visibility and blowing/drifting snow.
• Mainly rain is expected across the rest of the Northeast and into the Ohio Valley.
• Heavy lake-effect snow may develop by Tuesday night across the upper Great Lakes, possibly spreading into the lower Great Lakes snowbelts Wednesday or Wednesday night.

(MORE: January's Cold Reality Sets In Next Week)

Tuesday's Forecast

It is too early for specific snowfall totals into early next week but the heaviest snowfall with this system is expected in the higher elevations of the West.

Snowfall Outlook

A band of moderate to heavy snow is also possible from northern South Dakota and North Dakota into central and northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
In addition to snowfall, ice may also be a concern early next week.
This forecast is tricky and subject to revisions over the next several days. Be sure to check back with weather.com for updates.

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