Friday, March 31, 2017

April Fools' Day Storm May Bring Snow to Parts of the Northeast

Linda Lam
Published: March 30,2017

The forecast for snow late this week in parts of the Northeast is no April Fools' joke.
But this forecast calls for nothing like the epic April Fools' Day Blizzard that brought feet of snow to the region 20 years ago.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
The National Weather Service has posted winter storm watches, warnings and winter weather advisories across portions of New England, upstate New York and northeast Pennsylvania. Additionally, a freezing rain advisory is in effect for the Poconos.
The city of Boston is currently under a winter storm watch.


Winter Alerts
Into Friday, a low-pressure system will track across the Midwest, where snow is possible in parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. Rain and snow will also overspread the Northeast into Friday.
Friday night into Saturday, an area of low pressure will then redevelop and intensify off the Northeast coast. This system will have plenty of moisture associated with it from the western Atlantic, which will bring moderate to heavy rain and snow to the region.
This low-pressure system is then expected to pull away from the Northeast by Saturday night.
An area of low pressure will develop off the Northeast coast, enhancing rain and snow late this week.
Enough cold air may be in place, especially in interior New England and portions of upstate New York, for snowfall accumulation to occur.
(MORE: This Was Your Coldest Temperature of Winter 2016-17)
Given the time of year and the onshore easterly wind expected, areas toward the southern New England coast may see little to no accumulating snow because temperatures likely will remain above freezing. This may also help to minimize the impact on roads in many areas.
Some of the valleys of upstate New York may see a mix of rain, sleet, freezing rain and snow.

Late-Week Forecast

Into early Friday, precipitation will overspread most of the Northeast. Rain is expected in the mid-Atlantic states, with snow possible in parts of eastern New York and western New England.
Friday
  • Precipitation spreads into much of the rest of New England, except perhaps most of Maine, while continuing over the rest of the Northeast.
  • Snow is likely for the higher elevations of New England and the Adirondack mountains, while a mix of rain, snow, sleet and ice is possible in parts of southern New England and the lower elevations of eastern New York.
  • Moderate rainfall is expected from the eastern Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic and northward along the southern New England coast.
  • FORECAST: Burlington, Vermont | Albany, New York | Worcester, Massachusetts

Friday's Forecast
Friday Night
  • Much of northern and central New England and the Adirondacks will likely see snow, heavy at times.
  • A mix of rain, snow, sleet and ice is anticipated in parts of Massachusetts and eastern New York.
  • Elsewhere across the region, rain is expected.
  • Winds may be gusty at times, especially toward the coast.
  • FORECAST: Portland, Maine | Boston | New York City

Friday Night's Forecast
Saturday
  • Precipitation will linger in New England and upstate New York before the low pulls away by Saturday night.
  • Snow will continue to accumulate in Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, western Massachusetts and eastern New York, with a mix of rain and snow in parts of eastern Massachusetts.
  • Rain is expected from Cape Cod into southern Connecticut and possibly along the New Jersey coast.
  • Gusty winds are likely, especially along the Northeast coast into southern New England.
  • FORECAST: Bangor, Maine | Nantucket, Massachusetts | Atlantic City, New Jersey

Saturday's Forecast
Depending on the track and strength of this storm, minor coastal flooding could also occur during high tide on early Saturday morning and again Saturday afternoon.

How Much Snow Will Fall?

The heaviest snowfall will likely be in the higher elevations of southern New Hampshire, southern Vermont, interior northern and western Massachusetts and the Adirondacks, where over a foot of snow could pile up by late Saturday.
However, a swath of at least 6 inches of wet snow may pile up in some low elevations from western and southern Maine to New Hampshire, Vermont, western and central Massachusetts and upstate New York. This could result in downed tree limbs and powerlines.
Furthermore, the elevation at which snow is expected to fall will lower Friday night into Saturday, which could result in some snow accumulation in some of the higher-population areas of southern New England, including parts of the Boston metro area.

Snowfall Forecast Through Saturday
Check back with weather.com for forecast updates as we get closer to this event.
(MAPS: Precipitation Forecast)
Some freezing rain and sleet are also possible, which could result in patchy accumulation of ice in some areas. The highest risk of ice accumulation is in the Worcester Hills, the east slopes of the Berkshires and the Poconos.
In areas where rain is the predominant precipitation type, rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are possible. The greatest rainfall totals will likely be found toward the Northeast coast.

April Fools' Day Blizzard Was 20 Years Ago

If snow falls Friday into Saturday in the Northeast, this will not be the first time for such an occurrence on April Fools' Day.
In 1997, heavy snow buried portions of central and southern New England into the Catskills of New York and the Poconos of Pennsylvania from March 31 to April 1.
Snowfall accumulation map from Mar. 31- Apr. 1, 1997.
(NOAA)
The low-pressure system moved over the Ohio Valley and than quickly intensified off the Northeast coast. This system moved slowly, which resulted in an extended period of heavy snow. Thundersnow was reported and snow fell at rates of up to 3 inches per hour.
It was a heavy, wet snow that was accompanied by strong winds. This damaged trees and brought down powerlines.
(MORE: Extreme Winter Storms That Struck in Spring)
After reaching a high of 63 degrees on March 30, Boston then saw 25.4 inches of snow during the storm. More than a foot of snow fell as far south as Providence, which measured 18.0 inches.
Worcester received 33.0 inches from this snowstorm. This set a record at the time for most snow in a snowstorm, but that record was broken with Winter Storm Juno in January 2015.
Snow totals of up to 3 feet were reported, including in Milford, Massachusetts, and East Jewitt, New York.
MORE: Winter Storm Stella, March 2017 (PHOTOS)

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